Blog

Each month about this time we look back at the previous month, analyze how pricing has behaved and report on how well our forecasting techniques performed. We also give a forecast for how pricing will move over the next 30 days.

For the monthly period ending May 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $117.68 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is 3.5% higher than the $113.55 we now measure for April 15. Our forecast range was $115.40 to $120.11 with a mid-point of $117.75. This month we can celebrate recording one of the most accurate forecasts since we started operation. The actual value was almost exactly at our mid-point (just 7 cents low). This is reassuring after our miss last month.

On May 15 REO sales across Greater Phoenix (all types) averaged $86.56 per sq. ft. (up 6.2%). Pre-foreclosures and short sales averaged $87.01 (up 2.6%) while normal sales averaged $126.56 (up 2.2%). The market share of normal sales rose again over the last 30 days, moving from 74.2% to 76.5% of sales. REOs lost market share from 11.6% to 10.7%. Short sales and pre-foreclosures continued to lose market share from 14.2% to 12.9%.

On May 16 the pending listings for all areas & types showed an average list $/SF of $113.13, 1.2% above the reading for April 16 – so pending $/SF has made another move upward over the last month, though not nearly as great as last month. Among those pending listings we have 61.7% normal, up from 60.0% last month, a lower 12.2% in REOs and a weaker 26.1% in short sales and pre-foreclosures. The average pricing for pending listings on May 16 in each category was: $130.87 normal, $79.83 short sales & pre-foreclosures and $83.30 for REOs. The latter is a lower number than last month, but the other two are higher. The favorable change in mix away from distressed properties should also cause sales prices to move higher.

Our new mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on June 15 is $120.44, which is 1.24% higher than the May 16 reading. We have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this mid point, i.e. in the range $118.03 to $122.85. In other words we still expect prices are move higher in the next 30 days though not to the large extent they did last month.

September 15, 2011 – measured at $78.82 per sq. ft. – remains the $/SF pricing bottom 20 months ago. The record low monthly median sales price is still standing at $107,000 and this record low point was set on February 24, 2011. Our current monthly median sales price is now $175,000 – 63.6% above that low point.